Base metal prices are on an upward trajectory, driven by robust industrial demand, constrained global supply, a weaker US dollar, and heightened speculative interest. During the September 2025 quarter, the London Metal Exchange (LME) recorded sequential (or quarter-on-quarter) price increases across key metals such as copper (3.1%), aluminium (6.9%) and zinc (7.2%).
This price momentum, combined with the depreciation of the USD-INR exchange rate, is expected to enhance the performance of non-ferrous metal companies for the September quarter. Investor optimism is evident in the stock market, with year-to-date returns for leading players outpacing the broader BSE Sensex’s 6.3% gain.
Base metal prices remained firm through October, with LME prices rising another 5-8%. This is expected to support the financial performance of non-ferrous companies in the December 2025 quarter as well.
According to a September 2025 note by credit rating agency ICRA, domestic primary non-ferrous entities are likely to demonstrate earnings resilience through 2025-26. In 2024-25, India’s nonferrous metal demand grew by 9% yearon-year, driven by robust offtake in infrastructure, electrical, and renewable energy sectors. ICRA projects demand growth to remain healthy at 7-9.5% in 2025–26, outpacing global growth rates.
copper outlook
Experts foresee a structural supply tightness in copper, which is expected to sustain price strength. A recent Emkay report highlights that demand is being propelled by megatrends such as data centre expansion and electrification. The current copper project pipeline is estimated to meet only half of mediumterm requirements, suggesting a prolonged supply deficit. Additionally, critical minerals like lithium, nickel, and rare earth elements are facing even sharper supply bottlenecks.Aluminium outlook
Aluminium prices are also expected to remain elevated, supported by a supply deficit stemming from capacity constraints in China and a gradual recovery in global demand. According to a Motilal Oswal report, while demand is improving due to clean energy initiatives and infrastructure development, supply responsiveness is being hindered by energy constraints, environmental regulations, and geopolitical factors. Although new alumina and smelter projects in Indonesia and India are expected to add capacity, they are unlikely to fully meet the pace of global demand growth. Here is how the key four listed nonferrous players are placed:
Hindustan zinc
Hindustan Zinc, a major producer of zinc, lead, and silver, delivered a strong performance in the September 2025 quarter, with sequential revenue and EBITDA (Earnings before interest, taxes and depreciation) growth of 10% and 15%, respectively. This was supported by favourable metal prices.- Market drivers: Zinc and lead prices benefited from tight inventories and rising demand in infrastructure and battery sectors, while silver prices surged due to increased industrial consumption.
- Outlook: Management anticipates further cost improvements by March 2026, driven by increased renewable energy usage.
- Capex plans: Capital expenditure of $350-400 million for 2025–26 will fund ongoing projects, smelter debottlenecking, and new expansion initiatives.
- Analysts view: Key positives include favourable pricing, cost optimisation, capacity expansion, and potential margin enhancement. However, the management’s downward revision of silver output guidance is viewed as a limiting factor.
