- Cautious optimism for 2026: BMI expects most mineral and metal prices to average higher than in 2025 amid easing global tariff uncertainty.
- Policy and trade risks remain: While trade frictions are expected to decline, select metals—especially copper—face potential downside risks from renewed U.S. protectionist measures.
- Green transition demand supportive: Growth in renewable energy and electrification is likely to offset weak Chinese housing demand, underpinning metals such as copper, aluminum, lithium, and nickel.
BMI noted that global trade frictions began easing after tariff uncertainty peaked in August 2025, a trend expected to continue through 2026. While isolated tariff flare-ups between the US and select economies remain possible, the firm’s country risk team expects overall uncertainty to decline, supporting commodity demand. However, short-term volatility cannot be ruled out, particularly for metals facing renewed US protectionist pressures.
Copper stands out as a key risk, with analysts highlighting that the US Secretary of Commerce is due to review the domestic copper market by June 30, 2026. This could pave the way for a 15% duty on refined copper from 2027 and 30% from 2028.
Although China’s housing sector continues to weigh on industrial metals consumption, Fitch expects this to be partially offset by strong growth in green energy sectors, boosting demand for copper, aluminum, lithium, and nickel.
